IMF projects 3.1% global growth in 2026
The International Monetary Fund expects global real gross domestic product to grow by 3.1% in 2026. The forecast is slightly higher than the institution’s July estimate. Strong investment in artificial intelligence is a major factor supporting the outlook.
AI investment is helping sustain growth in advanced economies and countries connected to AI supply chains. These include South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand.
However, the global economy faces significant risks. The IMF identified prolonged inflation caused by conflict, rising public debt, uncertainty over AI profitability and climate-related events as major threats.
Growth remains concentrated in a limited number of economies
The IMF warned that global growth is becoming increasingly uneven. Only 32 countries now account for 95% of global economic growth.
Oil-dependent Gulf economies face particularly severe pressure from the Middle East conflict. Saudi Arabia is forecast to contract by 3.3%.
The United States is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. AI investment and tax cuts are supporting its economic outlook. India is projected to lead major economies with growth of 7%.
Inflation and debt remain major concerns
The IMF warned that inflation could remain elevated, including because of price pressures associated with AI investment. The institution also highlighted the risk that governments may struggle to maintain sustainable debt levels.
Uncertainty over whether AI investment will generate sufficient productivity gains could affect future growth. The IMF called for fiscal responsibility and action to address debt sustainability.
These issues are expected to feature in discussions at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.
