WTO Raises Trade Forecast
AI demand lifts the global trade outlook
The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global goods trade in 2026. It now expects trade volumes to grow by 3.9%. Its previous forecast, released in March, stood at 1.9%.
The AI investment boom has helped drive the improvement. Demand for semiconductors and servers remains strong. These products accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026.
Middle East tensions weigh on services
Supply chains have adapted to disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Alternative suppliers helped limit the impact on energy shipments. Businesses also rerouted cargo through different ports and transport corridors.
However, services trade faces a weaker outlook. The WTO now expects commercial services trade to grow by 3.3% in 2026. Its previous estimate was 4.8%. Higher energy costs and disrupted travel routes remain key pressures.
The WTO expects global goods trade to grow by 4.1% in 2027. It also forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The figures show a mixed picture. AI-related demand is supporting goods trade, but regional conflicts continue to weigh on other sectors.
